Stephen Nover Free Saturday Play
(NCAAF) Rice vs. Army,
Point Spread: 10.00 | -110.00 Rice (Away)
Result: Loss
Rice has high hopes of returning to a bowl game with 16 starters back. Those hopes, though, are in serious jeopardy if the Owls open the season 0-3. That likely will happen if Rice loses this game since it plays Baylor next week.

The Owls put themselves in this must-win spot by losing, 46-14, to Western Kentucky in their first game. That was on Sept. 1. So the Owls have had extra time to prepare for Army's one-dimensional ground attack.

The lone bright spot for Rice in its loss to Western Kentucky was displaying decent run defense holding the Hilltoppers to an average of 3.2 yards per rush.

Rice isn't nearly as bad as it looked against Western Kentucky. Certainly the Owls need to shore up their pass defense. But Army is strictly ground oriented and plays at a much slower pace. The Black Knights are in a major letdown spot, too, having stunned Temple, 28-13, last week as 14 1/2-point underdogs.

Army, which has only one winning record during the past six years, didn't win a home game last season against a lined opponent and was 0-3 against the spread as a home favorite. The Black Knights are a stunning 0-18 straight-up following a victory, 4-14 against the spread since 2010.

Rice defeated Army, 38-31, as 6 1/2-point home favorites last year. Now look at the spread. It's out of whack with too much emphasis on last week's abnormal results.

Rice isn't nearly as bad as it looked versus Western Kentucky and Army certainly isn't nearly as good as it looked against Temple, which was missing injured star running back Jahad Thomas. He rushed for 1,262 yards and scored 17 touchdowns last season.