I'm attracted to the 'dog here. The Orioles led the majors in homers, are playing better than the Blue Jays and hold a bullpen edge. I'd rate the starting pitching matchup of Chris Tillman versus Marcus Stroman nearly even with maybe a slight edge again to the Orioles.

Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine games. Toronto is 13-16 since the start of September. Since then the Blue Jays have averaged an AL-worst 3.6 runs per game. The Orioles paced the majors with 253 homers.

Tillman posted a 2.38 ERA in two starts at Rogers Centre. He's backed by the best closer in the American League, if not all of baseball, in Zach Britton, who was a perfect 47-for-47 in save chances. Britton made seven appearances against the Blue Jays this season holding them scoreless in eight innings.

Stroman last won on Aug. 14. The Orioles just beat him this past Thursday getting four runs on nine hits and two walks in seven-plus innings. Toronto's bullpen hasn't looked good. Closer Roberto Osuna threw 46 pitches during the weekend so fatigue is a factor.