PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NFL Thursday Terminator
(NFL) Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay,
Total: 51.00 | -115.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 51.00 | -115.00 Under
Result: Win
Atlanta has a very good offense. The Falcons are a little improved defensively, but still very bad. The result is a great combination to go over the total. That's what the Falcons have done in seven of their eight games. No other team has a better over mark than Atlanta's 7-1.
The only time the Falcons went under is when they defeated Denver - an outstanding defensive team with a bad quarterback - 23-16. If you discount that matchup, the combined total of the Falcons' other seven games this season is 64.8 points per game.
Matt Ryan has been an above average quarterback for nine years. This just may be his finest season. Ryan is leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 19 and in passing yards. Julio Jones is now considered by many, including myself, to be the best wide receiver in football.
The Falcons have other weapons, though. Ryan has thrown a touchdown pass to 10 different players. Devonta Freeman is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL.
Tampa Bay's defense ranks 25th in points allowed at 27 per game. The Buccaneers give up the seventh-most yards per game, too. Opponents have scored 27 or more points on the Buccaneers in four of the past six games.
The timing of this matchup being on Thursday is brutal for the Buccaneers' defense, which was on the field for nearly 45 minutes this past Sunday in an overtime loss to the Raiders. Tampa Bay's starting cornerbacks were on the field for 93 plays. The Bucs surrendered a staggering 626 yards to Oakland, 7.4 yards per snap. The Falcons' offense is better than the Raiders and Atlanta won't commit a record number of penalties either like the Raiders did. The Buccaneers' defense is going to be gassed early with such a short turnaround.
Atlanta may come close to covering this total by itself. The key is the Buccaneers doing their part by putting up a fair share of points. I see that happening. Yes, the Buccaneers are down their first three running backs and No. 2 wideout Vincent Jackson is out.
But they still have Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, one of the best wide receivers in the league. The Buccaneers put up 34 points when they beat Atlanta, 31-24, opening week. Winston had a huge game with four touchdown passes while going 23-for-33 for 281 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers had been the Bucs' main runner following injuries to Doug Martin and Charles Sims. Rodgers was putting up solid numbers, but he's not that good. His numbers were there because of high volume. Antone Smith is next man up for the Buccaneers. I've always liked him. He's fast and a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. I think he's better than Rodgers.
The bar isn't set high for Tampa Bay to score a lot. Atlanta ranks 29th in scoring defense yielding 28.9 points per game. The Falcons give up the sixth-most passing yards.
There's a chance of light rain, but little wind. So bad weather shouldn't factor.
The only time the Falcons went under is when they defeated Denver - an outstanding defensive team with a bad quarterback - 23-16. If you discount that matchup, the combined total of the Falcons' other seven games this season is 64.8 points per game.
Matt Ryan has been an above average quarterback for nine years. This just may be his finest season. Ryan is leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 19 and in passing yards. Julio Jones is now considered by many, including myself, to be the best wide receiver in football.
The Falcons have other weapons, though. Ryan has thrown a touchdown pass to 10 different players. Devonta Freeman is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL.
Tampa Bay's defense ranks 25th in points allowed at 27 per game. The Buccaneers give up the seventh-most yards per game, too. Opponents have scored 27 or more points on the Buccaneers in four of the past six games.
The timing of this matchup being on Thursday is brutal for the Buccaneers' defense, which was on the field for nearly 45 minutes this past Sunday in an overtime loss to the Raiders. Tampa Bay's starting cornerbacks were on the field for 93 plays. The Bucs surrendered a staggering 626 yards to Oakland, 7.4 yards per snap. The Falcons' offense is better than the Raiders and Atlanta won't commit a record number of penalties either like the Raiders did. The Buccaneers' defense is going to be gassed early with such a short turnaround.
Atlanta may come close to covering this total by itself. The key is the Buccaneers doing their part by putting up a fair share of points. I see that happening. Yes, the Buccaneers are down their first three running backs and No. 2 wideout Vincent Jackson is out.
But they still have Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, one of the best wide receivers in the league. The Buccaneers put up 34 points when they beat Atlanta, 31-24, opening week. Winston had a huge game with four touchdown passes while going 23-for-33 for 281 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers had been the Bucs' main runner following injuries to Doug Martin and Charles Sims. Rodgers was putting up solid numbers, but he's not that good. His numbers were there because of high volume. Antone Smith is next man up for the Buccaneers. I've always liked him. He's fast and a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. I think he's better than Rodgers.
The bar isn't set high for Tampa Bay to score a lot. Atlanta ranks 29th in scoring defense yielding 28.9 points per game. The Falcons give up the sixth-most passing yards.
There's a chance of light rain, but little wind. So bad weather shouldn't factor.
