The Chiefs are a conservative, grind-out team not built to cover margins past a touchdown. Now the Chiefs will be without Alex Smith. The Chiefs already are thin at running back and have an overrated defense that doesn't apply much of a pass rush. That problem isn't likely to be corrected until Justin Houston returns to the lineup and he's not ready this week.

The Jaguars do possess talent - on both sides of the ball. Blake Bortles has regressed this season, but still rates a clear edge over Chiefs back-up quarterback journeyman Nick Foles. The Chiefs are much more vulnerable to turnovers now with the downgrade from efficient game-manager Smith to Foles.

Jacksonville has had extra prep and rest time for this matchup. The Jaguars are off an embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Titans. The Jaguars fired their offensive coordinator following the loss to the Titans. That could provide a needed spark.

But mainly this handicap is a fade on the Chiefs, who are overpriced at home - where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Arrowhead - and taking advantage of Kansas City's injuries at the skill positions.