You have to go back to the opening game of the 2012 season to find the last time Baltimore beat Cincinnati by more than four points. Since then the Bengals have dominated this series winning the past five times.

The Bengals have made the playoffs the past five years. That streak is in serious jeopardy if the Bengals lose this game. Cincinnati isn't as good as it has been the last few years. However, the Ravens are in down mode, too, better than last season but not nearly as good as their playoff team of two years ago.

This is a key divisional showdown between two good defensive teams with mediocre quarterbacks so points are at a premium. I want this many points going for me here.

Both teams are averaging exactly 19.9 points per game. Andy Dalton is merely a game manager minus top wide receiver A.J. Green. But Joe Flacco is worse ranking 27th in the passer ratings.

Much is made of the Bengals losing Green and running back Giovani Bernard to injuries in last week's 16-12 loss to Buffalo. But the Ravens have injuries, too, in their offensive line and at cornerback where Jimmy Smith, their top pass defender, is questionable after missing last week.

The Ravens are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. The Bengals have committed the seventh fewest penalties. The Ravens aren't good enough to lay this many points here against this prideful and playoff-experienced foe that has covered 15 of the last 22 times following a loss.