The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points.

Yes, Oregon fell off a cliff this season, their worst in two decades. But the Ducks still hold a major talent gap, are off a victory that shows they still can be dangerous are treating this matchup as their Super Bowl.

I want all that going for me and this short spread is a path to involvement.

Oregon State is having another crummy year at 3-8. That's to be expected. The Beavers are always a lower tier Pac-12 team. What's shocking is Oregon falling to 4-7. The Ducks, though, are coming off a 30-28 upset win of then-11th ranked Utah.

That victory can't salvage a lost season for the Ducks, but it does give them confidence going into this traditional in-state rivalry matchup.

Oregon's offense remains potent behind Justin Herbert. It's a big step down in defensive class that Oregon is used to seeing after facing Utah, Southern Cal and Stanford during its last three games.

The road team has dominated this series going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times. Oregon is 5-0 ATS the past five times playing at Oregon State.