OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens.

Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25.

Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs.

The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games.

The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island.