It's going to take an extreme set of circumstances for me to back the Avalanche. But in this matchup there are those extreme circumstances.

Colorado catches Buffalo coming off its bye week. Teams playing in their first game following their bye are 4-20-4. That's a powerful trend that can't be ignored.

The Sabres aren't exactly a powerhouse either and have a terrible history at Denver losing in their last five visits. The last time the Sabres won in Denver was 2005.

The Avalanche are 10-2 the past 12 times overall against Buffalo.

Colorado gets back defenseman Erik Johnson for this game and its goalie, Calvin Pickard, has a 1.40 GAA in two lifetime appearances versus the Sabres.