This is a matchup of the No. 3 scoring team, Denver, versus the lowest-scoring team, Dallas. The Nuggets average 111.8 points, third-best in the league. The Mavericks score just 98 points per game.

So why a play on the Over when on paper this total looks to be lined correctly?

If we go inside the numbers and look into the setting for this matchup it becomes clear the Over has a very good chance of coming in.

The spot is this: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. So this becomes a no-pressure game that should have a loose, offensive-feel to it.

The Mavericks are going with a lot of young, seldom-used players now. They have fresh legs, important this late in the season. But Dallas also will have back its leading scorer, Harrison Barnes. He rested during the Mavericks' last game, but will play here. Barnes averages 19.2 points. Denver ranks 27th defensively yielding 111.5 points per contest and also ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage.

Making this atmosphere even more loose is that this is Tony Romo's "Maverick for a Day" game. The former Cowboys starting quarterback is going to sit on Dallas' bench in uniform.

The Nuggets should get their points. If you discount their performance against the Pelicans, the Nuggets have averaged 119 points during their last 13 games. They've often played better on the road where the over has cashed in six of their last seven away contests.

The Mavericks are giving up average of 109 points in their last four games, including allowing 124 to the Suns during their last game this past Sunday. Phoenix shot 55 percent from the field in that game.

This game also is lined in the pick range so overtime is a possibility.