What would you say if you could take a hugh price on an underdog that is 11-1 in its last 12 games and whose starting pitcher has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts?

You would take it, right? So would I. That's the case with the underdog Rangers here against Rick Porcello at Fenway Park.

Boston is an underachieving one game above .500. Texas is three games above .500. Porcello isn't coming close to reproducing his Cy Young Award-winning season of a year ago. He's 2-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Porcello has surrendered 10 homers in 55 1/3 innings. Texas has hit the eighth-most homers in the majors. Porcello also has a 5.69 career ERA versus the Rangers in nine starts.

So why, pray tell, are the Red Sox such a heavy favorite?

One huge reason is Texas starter Andrew Cashner has failed to win 21 of his past 22 road starts. His lifetime road ERA is 4.85 compared to 2.82 at home. Cashner pitched for 4 1/2 seasons for the Padres at Petco Park. That explains some of the home/road difference.

The key here is Cashner is healthy, which he hasn't been the last several years, and pitching well. He has a 1.89 ERA during his last three starts and a respectable 3.12 ERA in three road starts. The Red Sox have never faced him.