I understand that it's hard to make a case for the under when the starting pitching matchup is Josh Tomlin versus Chris Tillman and the game is at Camden Yards.

But the total is high here, the Orioles have injuries and Tillman is overdue for improvement.

Tomlin is a better road pitcher. The under actually has cashed in seven of his last eight road starts. Slated home plate umpire Kerwin Danley has had a slight under bias during the past two seasons.

The Orioles are down slugging first baseman Chris Davis and now shortstop J.J. Hardy is out. Hardy is past his prime, but with infielder Ryan Flaherty also on the DL the Orioles' shortstop choices become Ruben Tejada, or Paul Janish. Neither can hit, nor have power. Hardy at least wasn't an automatic out.

The Indians are missing a key offensive player, too, with outfielder Michael Brantley going on the DL.