The Over is 10-4-1 in the Rangers' last 15 home games. This isn't surprising. As the weather gets warmer, the ball carries much better in Arlington.

We have a high total today in Arlington, where the temperature is expected to reach the 90-degree mark. But it's still worth going Over - and not just because of the humidity. The pitching matchup is Joe Biagini against Tyson Ross.

Biagini may not be sticking in the Blue Jays' starting rotation too much longer. He's 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his past three starts. Biagini's declining velocity was on display in his last start when he was shelled for seven runs on eight innings in just one inning against the White Sox this past Friday.

Sparked by the return of Carlos Gomez from the DL, Texas has averaged seven runs during its last five games. Gomez has three homers and nine RBI during this span.

The Blue Jays should do their share of damage versus Ross, who is making only his second start after missing the first 2 1/2 months of the season with a shoulder injury. Ross pitched only once last year before suffering shoulder woes. So he's rusty. Ross walked more than five batters per nine innings and had a 7.71 ERA while rehabbing in the minors.

Ross also is going to be on a pitch count, which puts the vulnerable Texas bullpen and suddenly shaky closer Matt Bush into play.