It's not that I don't like Marcus Stroman. I just don't trust him in this price range. Now I'm not a huge fan of Wade Miley, whose average of 19 pitches per inning are the second-most in the majors, but the Orioles have a lot going for them to be this big of underdogs.

Baltimore is hot winning three in a row for the first time in nearly four weeks. The Orioles have owned the Blue Jays lately winning eight of the last 10 against them. Miley is a southpaw. The Blue Jays are 5-13 versus lefty starters this season.

Stroman is not in good form. He's surrendered 10 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He's allowed six homers in his last two starts and has a poor history against the Orioles with a 2-3 lifetime mark and 5.27 ERA in seven games, including six starts. The Orioles entered this week leading the American League in batting average with runners in scoring position.

Miley is 1-1 against Toronto this year with a 2.08 ERA. He's pitching on five days rest. Baltimore is 5-1 the past six times Miley has pitched on five days rest.

Miley isn't likely to go deep into the game, however. He's usually good for just five innings. But Baltimore's bullpen - at least their backend - is much better than perceived with closer Zach Britton not due back until July 5 because of a forearm strain.

Interim closer Brad Brach has allowed only one run in his past 14 appearances giving up just five hits during his last 14 1/3 innings. Setup man Darren O'Day has gone three scoreless innings since returning from the DL this past Friday.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 10-3 on his last 13 MLB premium/free plays. Don't miss any of Stephen's plays!)