Stephen Nover's MLB Total of the Month
(MLB) Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati,
Total: 10.00 | -105.00 Under
Result: Win
The time to fade Jimmy Nelson is when he pitches on the road at night. The time to go against Homer Bailey ... is well anytime.

The two pitchers face off at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park on a hot, muggy night with temperatures slated to be in the high-to-mid 80's. That kind of weather really favors the hitter.

The Brewers' bullpen has worked 11 innings during the last two days. The Reds' best relief pitcher, closer Raisel Iglesias, has also pitched the last two days.

This spot is ripe for fireworks.

Nelson has a 5.06 road ERA compared to 2.64 at home. His nigh ERA is 4.50. During the day his ERA is 1.29. The Reds' lineup just got more powerful as shortstop Zach Cozart is expected back in the lineup today.

Bailey's career may be finished. This will be just his 10th start in three years as he's undergone three arm surgeries. Bailey made his season debut this past Saturday on the road against the Nationals. He couldn't get out of the second inning giving up six hits and three walks. Bailey is 5-8 lifetime against the Brewers with a 4.64 ERA.