Jon Lester has been the Cubs' best pitcher this season. I like him at home laying a short price against a struggling Robbie Ray.

Ray was outstanding last year. But the southpaw has yet to rediscover last season's form since coming off the DL. He has a 7.65 ERA in his last four starts. Ray has surrendered seven homers during this four-game span.

The Cubs rank in the top four in runs scored and batting average. They are 17-5 the past 22 times facing a southpaw starter.

Lester has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his past nine starts. He has a 3.12 home ERA this season despite giving up eight earned runs in his last start at Wrigley Field when a heavy wind was blowing out. That's not going to be the case today. Lester is 7-1 in day games this season.

The Cubs usually perform well for Lester having won 74 percent of his last 54 home starts.