Andy Reid is a likely Hall of Fame coach. But when it comes to the playoffs he is a Hall of Fame chump. Reid's team have lost eight of their last nine playoff games. This includes a 1-4 postseason mark with the Chiefs. The Titans upset the Chiefs as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs last season in the Chiefs' first playoff game. These Colts are far better than that Tennessee team.

The Chiefs went just 3-3 down the stretch going 1-4-1 ATS with their lone cover coming against the Raiders.

Indianapolis is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Colts' defense has been far better than perceived. So has their offensive line, which gave up the fewest sacks in the league. Marlon Mack has emerged as a running back threat. He's better than any of Kansas City's running backs with Kareem Hunt gone.

Patrick Mahomes had a great season. But so did Andrew Luck, who threw the second-most TD passes on the season in back of only Mahomes. Luck has playoff experience, something Mahomes lacks.

Kansas City's defense has played better at home. But the Colts hold a defensive edge. They've held five of their last six foes to 21 points or fewer. The Chiefs defense surrendered the second-most points per game and second most-yards per game.

The Colts have become a physical unit that can play ball control. That's the way to beat the Chiefs.