There are three major reasons why I like the Rams to beat the Cowboys by more than a touchdown: Situation, home/road data and coaching.

Let's start with the situation. LA is rested. The Rams should be well prepared given two weeks to prepare with Sean McVay, who just might be the sharpest offensive-minded coach in football. The Rams won 11 games under McVay last season emerging as a force. However, the Rams suffered from playoff inexperience and lost in the first round to the Falcons. This year the Rams won 13 games and improved even more. Jared Goff and Co. now have playoff experience. A rested Todd Gurley trumps Ezekiel Elliott especially with a far better downfield passing attack on his side. The Cowboys entered this season having won one playoff game in Jason Garrett's previous seven years as head coach. McVay versus Garrett is a huge coaching mismatch in LA's favor.

Home/road splits are huge for both teams. The Rams went 7-1 at home, averaging nine more points per game at home while giving up 8.2 points less per contest. Goff is a California quarterback. His quarterack rating was nearly 35 points higher when he played in LA. Dallas, by contrast, averaged 7.5 points fewer per game when on the road with Dak Prescott's quarterback rating being nearly 24 points lower away from Dallas. The Cowboys averaged a league-low 5.8 points in the first half when on the road. The Cowboys are heavily run-oriented. Prescott has severe limitations when throwing more than just short passes. The Cowboys also have a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. They are not built to come from behind if the Rams should jump out to a big lead against them.