Give me Trevor Bauer at a plus price like this and I'm on the underdog Reds. 
Bauer is in line to win the NL Cy Young Award posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Bauer is in strong form, too, posting a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts. 
The Reds are peaking at the right time winning 11 of their last 14 games. 
Max Fried was excellent, too, for the Braves with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts. Fried, though, has a 5.14 ERA in three career appearances versus the Reds and had to leave his last start a week ago because of an ankle injury. So it remains to be seen if he'll be 100 percent. 
The Braves have the better offense. But Bauer should neutralize them. The Reds finished seventh in the majors in homers.