COVID-19 issues. A downgrade in coaching from Matt Ruhle to Dave Aranda. Quarterback regression from Charlie Brewer. These factors have hit Baylor hard this season reducing its effectiveness. 
I don't see the Bears being able to hang within two TD's of Iowa State. Baylor has lost three in a row since beating Kansas in its opener. The Bears rank ninth in the Big 12 in passing and 10th in rushing. Brewer hasn't looked good. Brewer has been sacked 13 times and has a career-low completion rate. Iowa State has held its last three foes to 20.3 points a game. 
Baylor could be without second-leading rusher John Lovett and starting wide receiver Tyquan Thornton. Both are hurt. Baylor is averaging a puny 20 points during its last three games. 
Iowa State is tied for first in the Big 12 with Kansas State at 4-1. The Cyclones have two outstanding runners in Breece Hall and QB Brock Purdy. Baylor ranks second-to-last in the conference in run defense. Hall has rushed for 100 yards in every game this season. He's in line for a big game here. Baylor yielded 247 yards on the ground to TCU last week.