Allow me to throw out a Heisman Trophy darkhorse - Indiana QB Michael Penix. He's thrown for 750 yards and 7 TD's leading the Hoosiers to a surprising 3-0 record with victories against Penn State, improved Rutgers and Michigan. Penix is aided by two of the top skill position players in the Big Ten, running back Stevie Scott and wide receiver Whop Philyor. 
Once they get into the red zone, the Hoosiers don't screw around. They have come away with points in all 16 trips inside the 20-yard line, including scoring 12 TD's. Penix had a monster game against Michigan State last year in a 40-31 loss completing 33 of 42 passes for 286 yards and accounting for four TD's. Penix is improved this season and Michigan State's defense remains down. The Spartans surrendered 38 points to Rutgers and 49 to Iowa. They lack the pass rush to disrupt Penix's rhythm. 
Michigan State should be able to move the ball on Indiana through the air. The Spartans rank 26th in the nation in passing yards. Jalen Nailor is one of the better wide receivers in the Big Ten. The Spartans scored 27 points on both Rutgers and Michigan. They were held to seven points by Iowa, but it's become clear now that Iowa's defense is very good after the Hawkeyes just held potent Minnesota to seven points on Friday night.