Entering this past Friday's home game against Indiana, Miami had been giving up only 95.3 points per game during its past eight games. Then the Heat played the Pacers and got buried and embarrassed, 137-110. 
That defeat didn't go down well with Erik Spoelstra, the Heat's coach and defensive guru. Two things to notice, though, following that loss for Miami. The Heat still rank No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in scoring defense. Veteran Trevor Ariza also made his Miami debut. Ariza is an ace defender with a knack for getting steals. Ariza could draw more minutes if Goran Dragic, an offensive-minded guard who is a plus for the Over, can not play. Dragic is questionable. 
Indiana had been averaging 109.2 points in its previous five games before blasting the Heat. 
Until that game, five of the last six in this series had gone Under. 
Note an early start time. That's a plus for the Under. 
I have to consider Friday's result an outlier. Expect things to play out more normal in today's game with the Heat exhibiting super defensive intensity.