The Pacers have failed to cover during their last five visits to Milwaukee. I see that streak continuing. 
The Bucks are playing their best ball going 11-1 in their last 12 games, including winning their past six. They have matched up well to the Pacers winning and covering six of the last seven games, including downing Indiana, 130-110, at home early last month. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a Triple Double in that victory. 
Milwaukee is clicking, in part, because point guard Jrue Holiday is back in the groove and newcomer P.J. Tucker looks like an excellent fit with his defense, professionalism and intensity. 
The spot sets up extremely well, too, for the Bucks. This is just the Bucks' second game in five days. Indiana, however, is playing its third game in four days and second in two days having gone overtime on Sunday to nip the Heat, 109-106. The Pacers rallied from five down in OT to defeat the Heat for the second time in three days with both wins coming in Miami. 
This is an extremely difficult feat. So kudos to the Pacers. But they are two levels below the Bucks and aren't likely to have much left in the tank following their road sweep of the Heat.