After getting a split in Utah, the Grizzlies lost, 121-111, at home this past Saturday to fall behind the Jazz two games to one in their playoff series. So this really becomes a must-win spot for the Grizzlies because a loss sends them to Utah down 3-1 in the series. 

I trust the Grizzlies to get that win, if not hang very close in this Game 4. The Grizzlies outrebounded the Jazz in Game 3, including holding a nine-rebound advantage on the offensive boards. But the Grizzlies couldn't withstand Utah's hot 49.4 shooting from the floor. The Jazz scored 18 more points from 3-point range and 10 more points from the free throw line, getting 13 more free throw opportunities. 

Memphis had good looks at the basket. The Grizzlies were just cold, unlike Utah. I expect the Grizzlies to shoot better. The Jazz haven't been able to stop Ja Morant. I also expect the Jazz to score fewer points. Until that loss two days ago, Memphis had held its past five opponents at home to an average of 105.2 points. That would rank No. 2 in the NBA if that were a season average. 

Memphis has covered 71 percent the last 14 times it has been an underdog. The Grizzlies also have covered five of the past six times they were a home 'dog.