Montreal has a surprising 2-1 lead on Las Vegas heading into Game 4 of its Stanley Cup series. But the Canadiens have not shown they are the better team. Not to denigrate the Canadiens' achievement, but they are extremely fortunate to be up. 

The Golden Knights have been in this come-from-behind position before down 1-0 to the Wild and 2-0 to the Avalanche. They responded each time, winning those series. 

Las Vegas dominated much of Game 3 only to lose 3-2 in overtime on a rare mistake by rock solid goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. 

The Golden Knights have fired 106 shots on goalie Carey Price during the first three games. Price can still be very good, as he's shown during the playoffs, but he isn't in his prime. Las Vegas has generated pressure despite Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, its two best offensive players, generating just one assist between them. Both are way overdue to produce. 

I see the Golden Knights breaking out in big fashion here so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 goals on the puck line and go for a huge plus price return.