PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NBA Monday Top of the Line - 64% NBA Hot Streak
(NBA) LA Clippers vs. Phoenix,
Total: 214.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Win
Total: 214.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Win
From a high of 222 1/2 in Game 2 of this Clippers-Suns Western Conference Finals, we now have the total reduced eight points in this Game 5.
An 84-80 Game 4 will do that.
I certainly don't expect the Clippers and Suns to combine to shoot just 34.3 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point range like they did in Game 4.
Instead let's go back to Game 3. The Clippers won that game, 106-92. Yes, that's just a combined 198 points and another easy Under winner. The Under has cashed the past three games.
But this total - the lowest of the series - the ebbs and flows and due factor all help put me on Over for this Game 5.
Now, getting back to that 106-92 Game 3 Clippers victory. LA shot 45 percent from the floor and 35 percent from 3-point range. That's not outstanding shooting yet 106 points were produced. The Clippers averaged a 48.2 shooting percentage during the regular season and 41.1 3-point shooting. Kawhi Leonard's absence cuts both ways. Yes, he's a great offensive force. But he's also one of the best defenders in the league.
I don't expect to see Rajon Rondo on the court anymore. That's a huge plus for the Over - and for the Clippers. Rondo didn't play in Game 4 after compiling a horrific minus 30 court time during the first three games of the series. The Clippers' points per possession goes way down when Rondo plays. Rondo should do the Clippers and NBA a favor and retire.
Yes, the Suns were held to only 92 points in Game 3. But they had 90 shots. Unfortunately for them, they hit just 39 percent from the floor and only got to shoot 13 free throws. Based on that volume of shots and expected increase in free throws, the Suns should score around 114 points, which is slightly lower than their season average of 115.3 points per game. Phoenix ranked second in field goal percentage and free throw percentage during the season.
The Suns smell a close-out game at home. They'll be going for the kill. Chris Paul is just the man to orchestrate that. It's his third game back from quarantine so the rust is off. Deandre Ayton has become a star in this series. The Clippers can't stop him inside. Ayton's outstanding play should open things up for Devin Booker, who is way overdue for a big game. Booker, who shot 48.4 percent from the floor during the season, has shot just 18-of-59 from the field for 30.5 percent during the last three games. He's had three games to adjust now to a plastic face guard that protects a broken nose he suffered in Game 2.
So I'm expecting the Suns to have a much-higher scoring game. The Clippers have no choice, but to keep up with their season on the brink. That means this one could get ugly at the end with a lot of fouling.
An 84-80 Game 4 will do that.
I certainly don't expect the Clippers and Suns to combine to shoot just 34.3 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point range like they did in Game 4.
Instead let's go back to Game 3. The Clippers won that game, 106-92. Yes, that's just a combined 198 points and another easy Under winner. The Under has cashed the past three games.
But this total - the lowest of the series - the ebbs and flows and due factor all help put me on Over for this Game 5.
Now, getting back to that 106-92 Game 3 Clippers victory. LA shot 45 percent from the floor and 35 percent from 3-point range. That's not outstanding shooting yet 106 points were produced. The Clippers averaged a 48.2 shooting percentage during the regular season and 41.1 3-point shooting. Kawhi Leonard's absence cuts both ways. Yes, he's a great offensive force. But he's also one of the best defenders in the league.
I don't expect to see Rajon Rondo on the court anymore. That's a huge plus for the Over - and for the Clippers. Rondo didn't play in Game 4 after compiling a horrific minus 30 court time during the first three games of the series. The Clippers' points per possession goes way down when Rondo plays. Rondo should do the Clippers and NBA a favor and retire.
Yes, the Suns were held to only 92 points in Game 3. But they had 90 shots. Unfortunately for them, they hit just 39 percent from the floor and only got to shoot 13 free throws. Based on that volume of shots and expected increase in free throws, the Suns should score around 114 points, which is slightly lower than their season average of 115.3 points per game. Phoenix ranked second in field goal percentage and free throw percentage during the season.
The Suns smell a close-out game at home. They'll be going for the kill. Chris Paul is just the man to orchestrate that. It's his third game back from quarantine so the rust is off. Deandre Ayton has become a star in this series. The Clippers can't stop him inside. Ayton's outstanding play should open things up for Devin Booker, who is way overdue for a big game. Booker, who shot 48.4 percent from the floor during the season, has shot just 18-of-59 from the field for 30.5 percent during the last three games. He's had three games to adjust now to a plastic face guard that protects a broken nose he suffered in Game 2.
So I'm expecting the Suns to have a much-higher scoring game. The Clippers have no choice, but to keep up with their season on the brink. That means this one could get ugly at the end with a lot of fouling.
