I want to back the Cowboys at home after they played their worst game of the season in a 30-16 home loss to the Broncos this past Sunday. Despite that defeat, Dallas still is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games, the best point spread mark in the NFL.

Only twice have the explosive Cowboys failed to manage at least 29 points this season when Dak Prescott has started.

Atlanta is terrible on defense once again. The Falcons give up the fifth-most points per game and rank 29th in takeaways.

The Falcons' 4-4 record is deceiving since three of their wins occurred versus the Giants, Jets and Dolphins whose combined record entering this week was 7-19. Atlanta won all but one of its games on a field goal by Younghoe Koo on the final play.

While Dallas should be aroused Atlanta is fat and happy having upset their hated division rivals the Saints on the road, 27-25, last Sunday. This marks the Falcons' fifth different venue in their last five games.