Texas State is the defending Sun Belt Conference champion. But the Bobcats have been overrated this season with a losing point spread record. They rank 325th in defensive field goal percentage allowing opponents to make 54.7 percent of their shots from the floor. 

The Bobcats are far from an elite team with losses to LSU, Vanderbilt and Houston by 33 points in their last game eight days ago. 

Troy, on the other hand, has been better than perceived with a 9-4 record. The Trojans have won four in a row with the latest being a 69-65 upset road victory against Mercer eight days ago. The Trojans rank 98th in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 40.6 percent from the field. 

This is the conference opener for both teams. The Trojans enter this matchup confident and playing their best ball. Texas State plays at a slow pace, not good for a favorite in this price range. The Bobcats haven't proven they should be this high of a favorite against this underrated Sun Belt challenger.