Maybe Wisconsin knew what it was doing all along. The Badgers were thrilled to land prize quarterback recruit Graham Mertz. However, Mertz was a major disappointment at Wisconsin. He's lived up to his high ceiling after transferring to Florida.

Mertz has a 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his 76.2 completion percentage is the third-highest in the nation. The combination of Mertz and Florida's defense make the Gators a worthy underdog.

Georgia is the No. 1 ranked team in the country at 7-0. It's also made the Bulldogs overpriced in nearly all of their games. Georgia has failed to cover in six of its seven games. The only cover the Bulldogs have was beating Ball State by 42 points as a 41 1/2-point favorite back in Week 2.

Carson Beck is a good, but not a great quarterback. He's going against a Florida defense that gives up just 20 points a game and ranks 17th in total yards. Beck will be minus his top receiver and best playmaker, injured star tight end Brock Bowers.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has three CFB premium plays going Saturday in addition to this free selection headed by his ACC Game of the Year and Pac-12 Total of the Month.)