PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NIT Game of the Year
(NCAAB) Vanderbilt vs. Xavier,
Point Spread: 4.00 | -115.00 Vanderbilt (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 4.00 | -115.00 Vanderbilt (Away)
Result: Win
Even with Xavier the host team in this NIT quarterfinal matchup, I still believe the wrong team is favored.
Xavier has underachieved all season and a victory against Florida in its last game doesn't change that. Unlike Xavier, Vanderbilt improved as the season went on. The Commodores buried Georgia and knocked off Alabama in the SEC Conference Tournament before falling to Kentucky in a close game. Vanderbilt has stayed hot defeating Belmont and Dayton as short favorites in its first two NIT games.
The Musketeers have had a different trajectory this season. They finished the regular season going 2-8 and then lost to Butler in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers didn't come close to covering against Cleveland State in their first-round NIT matchup before rolling past Florida.
Xavier might have had some extra incentive against the Gators because it was the first game for Jonas Hayes as interim head coach after Travis Steele resigned following the Cleveland State game after four years of heading Xavier's program. The timing of this move was curious and surprising. It could have a negative effect in this game for Xavier.
I'm always more comfortable when the team I back has the best player on the court. Vanderbilt has that with Scottie Pippin Jr. The Commodores also have a good center in Liam Robbins.
These teams actually met this season. That was back in October during a scrimmage, which Vanderbilt won. I don't put a whole lot of stock in that. But there are other indications that point to Vanderbilt faring well here.
The Commodores are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. They also are 10-2 ATS the past dozen times when facing above .500 competition.
On the flip side, Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-9 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Musketeers have also been awful as a favorite failing to cover 11 of the last 15 times in that role.
Xavier has underachieved all season and a victory against Florida in its last game doesn't change that. Unlike Xavier, Vanderbilt improved as the season went on. The Commodores buried Georgia and knocked off Alabama in the SEC Conference Tournament before falling to Kentucky in a close game. Vanderbilt has stayed hot defeating Belmont and Dayton as short favorites in its first two NIT games.
The Musketeers have had a different trajectory this season. They finished the regular season going 2-8 and then lost to Butler in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers didn't come close to covering against Cleveland State in their first-round NIT matchup before rolling past Florida.
Xavier might have had some extra incentive against the Gators because it was the first game for Jonas Hayes as interim head coach after Travis Steele resigned following the Cleveland State game after four years of heading Xavier's program. The timing of this move was curious and surprising. It could have a negative effect in this game for Xavier.
I'm always more comfortable when the team I back has the best player on the court. Vanderbilt has that with Scottie Pippin Jr. The Commodores also have a good center in Liam Robbins.
These teams actually met this season. That was back in October during a scrimmage, which Vanderbilt won. I don't put a whole lot of stock in that. But there are other indications that point to Vanderbilt faring well here.
The Commodores are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. They also are 10-2 ATS the past dozen times when facing above .500 competition.
On the flip side, Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-9 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Musketeers have also been awful as a favorite failing to cover 11 of the last 15 times in that role.
