Max Scherzer isn't slowing down on his way to the Hall of Fame. Aaron Nolan wasn't good last season. He wasn't good in his opening start this season. The Phillies are averaging two runs in their last three games.

So I'm happy to take a small plus price on the Mets.

Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, had a 2.46 ERA last season. This included a 3-0 mark with a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings against the Phillies. Career-wise, Scherzer is 14-4 versus Philadelphia with a 2.50 ERA in 25 career starts. The current projected Mets' starting lineup is batting a cumulative .140 against Scherzer.

I trust Scherzer far more than Nola. The Mets' bullpen has been solid, too, through the first five games with a 3.44 ERA.

Nola had a 4.63 ERA last year, way up from the 3.28 ERA he compiled in 2020. Nola has a 6.00 ERA in one start this season after giving up four runs - including two homers - in six innings against the A's, who are considered to be one of the worst teams in the majors.