Stephen Nover's NFL Thursday Top Ticket - 69% NFL!
(NFL) Washington vs. Chicago,
Total: 38.00 | -109.00 Over
Result: Loss
It's been a week and I still haven't recovered from the stench of last Thursday night's NFL game when the Colts beat the Broncos, 12-9, in overtime. I wouldn't blame Roger Goodell - or put it past him - if he secretly made sure there is more offense in this Thursday game. Amazon Prime Video must have real buyer's remorse having shelled out a reported $1.2 billion per year to acquire the Thursday night broadcasts.

Now we get what looks like another stinker, the Commanders against the Bears. Tough to get involved with a side here. I'll hold my nose and go Over this total. It's an extremely low number given how the game has become so unfairly skewed toward the offense. Fortunately for viewing purposes, Jerome Boger and his inept crew of excessive flag throwers won't be the officiating crew here. They'll be doing their part to ruin the Jaguars-Colts game.

Carson Wentz has thrown the second-highest amount of passes. Justin Fields has thrown the fewest passes of any quarterback who has started more than two games. Look for Wentz to throw fewer passes and for Fields to throw more passes. That will make both of them more effective.

Wentz actually looked very good the first two weeks of the season when he went against the Jaguars and Lions. The Commanders have averaged only 11.6 points during their last three games going against better defenses in the Eagles, Cowboys and Titans. The Bears rank second-to-last in the NFL in run defense and 22nd in defensive total yards. That's going against three of five offenses that were rendered weak at the time because of the situation: 49ers going with inexperienced Trey Lance on the road in a monsoon, Texans and Giants, who had both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor injured against Chicago.

Wentz is a cripple shooter. He's not good against elite defenses. However, he's fully capable of putting up good numbers against weak-to-mediocre defenses especially when given the benefit of a decent running attack. Power back Brian Robinson has returned to the Commanders' lineup bolstering their rushing balance. Wentz has 10 TD passes. Only four QB's have thrown more.

Keep in mind the bar is set low with this short total.

Cooper Kupp has 49 receptions. Justin Fields has 49 pass completions. Maybe Fields never will be a good enough downfield passer to cut it in the NFL. But Chicago needs to find that out. It's been five weeks now. The Bears' offensive line is not as terrible as perceived. It's actually held up well. The Bears finally started to open things up more after falling behind 21-3 to the Vikings on the road last Sunday. Chicago actually went in front, 22-21, before losing on a Minnesota touchdown with 2:26 left. Fields nearly engineered a successful late drive that could have tied the game, but his receiver was stripped of the ball at Minnesota's 39-yard line following a 15-yard completion.

That come-from-behind effort, though, should boost the Bears' confidence in Fields and the offense. Fields threw for a season-high 208 yards against the Vikings, completed 71.4 percent of his throws and had a passer rating of 118.8. The Commanders rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.6 points a game. They have just one takeaway.

Once again, the bar is set extremely low on this total. So I'm going Over.