Don't be fooled by Ball State going 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals have faced not only weak competition during this span, but also caught opponents missing key injured players.

When stepping up, the Cardinals have failed to cover the last five times against above .500 opponents. Toledo is 6-3 and several steps up in class for Ball State.

The Rockets have tremendous skill position talent. They are averaging 35.9 points, which is a top-25 figure. That average goes up to 45.5 points per game in four home matchups.

Ball State doesn't have the offense to keep pace ranking 90th in scoring at 24.8 points per game. The Cardinals are below average on defense, too.