PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NBA Friday Spread Crusher - 64% NBA Hot Streak
(NBA) Denver vs. Phoenix,
Point Spread: 4.50 | -110.00 Denver (Away)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 4.50 | -110.00 Denver (Away)
Result: Loss
It's a given the Suns are going to win Game 3 of their series against the Nuggets, right? After all, Phoenix is down 0-2 and in must-win mode coming home. The Suns are 30-14 at home. The Nuggets are 20-23 on the road.
But on closer inspection, I can't get behind the Suns. There are too many red flags. There's also a hefty point spread tax for backing Phoenix here.
You have to go back to Nov. 11 against the Celtics in Boston to find the last time the Nuggets were this big of underdogs when Nikola Jokic was in the lineup.
Denver beat Phoenix by an average of 14 points in sweeping the first two games of the series in Denver. That's with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant - the Suns' two superstars - having strong performances. Booker is averaging 31 points and seven assists in the series with Durant averaging 26.5 points and 11 rebounds. So it's hard to ask those two to do more than they already are giving.
The Nuggets have two superstars of their own. Jokic has been the best player in the NBA for the past three seasons. He rates a huge edge on Deandre Ayton. Jamal Murray had been as hot as any player until shooting just 3-of-15 from the floor in Game 2. Yet the Nuggets still won that game by 10 points.
Denver has outrebounded the Suns by 13 in the series and has displayed a much stronger rotation and bench. Even with Booker and Durant playing up to par, the Suns have averaged just 97 points in the series.
Now the Suns are not only being asked to cover what I consider an excessive point spread, but do it without point guard Chris Paul. He's out with a groin injury putting Cameron Payne in the spotlight. Payne plays faster than Paul, but he's not nearly as talented, nor does he have big-game, big-minute experience on his resume.
Paul was injured in Monday's Game 2 loss. Payne came in and scored just two points in 17 minutes going 1-for-7 from the floor. Worse, the Suns were minus-16 when he was on the court. That translates to minus-32 if Payne's minutes are doubled from 17 to 34.
Maybe Payne will step up. But I'd rather take the points and go-against him. All the pressure here is on the Suns. Let's see how they hold up. I don't see it going well for them.
But on closer inspection, I can't get behind the Suns. There are too many red flags. There's also a hefty point spread tax for backing Phoenix here.
You have to go back to Nov. 11 against the Celtics in Boston to find the last time the Nuggets were this big of underdogs when Nikola Jokic was in the lineup.
Denver beat Phoenix by an average of 14 points in sweeping the first two games of the series in Denver. That's with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant - the Suns' two superstars - having strong performances. Booker is averaging 31 points and seven assists in the series with Durant averaging 26.5 points and 11 rebounds. So it's hard to ask those two to do more than they already are giving.
The Nuggets have two superstars of their own. Jokic has been the best player in the NBA for the past three seasons. He rates a huge edge on Deandre Ayton. Jamal Murray had been as hot as any player until shooting just 3-of-15 from the floor in Game 2. Yet the Nuggets still won that game by 10 points.
Denver has outrebounded the Suns by 13 in the series and has displayed a much stronger rotation and bench. Even with Booker and Durant playing up to par, the Suns have averaged just 97 points in the series.
Now the Suns are not only being asked to cover what I consider an excessive point spread, but do it without point guard Chris Paul. He's out with a groin injury putting Cameron Payne in the spotlight. Payne plays faster than Paul, but he's not nearly as talented, nor does he have big-game, big-minute experience on his resume.
Paul was injured in Monday's Game 2 loss. Payne came in and scored just two points in 17 minutes going 1-for-7 from the floor. Worse, the Suns were minus-16 when he was on the court. That translates to minus-32 if Payne's minutes are doubled from 17 to 34.
Maybe Payne will step up. But I'd rather take the points and go-against him. All the pressure here is on the Suns. Let's see how they hold up. I don't see it going well for them.
