Line value, situation, better defensive team and a huge coaching edge. Those are the four main factors that put me on Miami for this Game 1 Eastern Conference Finals series.

I'm surprised the line is this high. Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are not Doc Rivers and choke artists James Harden and Joel Embiid.

The Heat know how to play defense - No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game - and they are rested. Miami hasn't played since Wednesday. The Celtics still could be celebrating their dismantling of the 76ers this past Sunday.

Miami is extremely dangerous with time to prepare. The Heat upset the Bucks on the road in Game 1 of their first-round series. Miami repeated in Game 1 of its second round series upsetting the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

The Heat are 39-17 (70 percent) ATS when playing on three or more days rest. They also have covered 13 of the past 18 times against the Celtics.

Spoelstra could be the best coach in the NBA. He rates a huge edge on Boston's inexperienced Joe Mazzulla.