The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline.

Yes, there are some very good skill position players involved. But this is a high total and these defenses are not as bad as some perceive. I also believe there will be more running plays than expected. 

Raheem Morris is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He's done a fine job with the Rams this season. Aaron Donald still is in his dominant prime. Morris has the Rams playing a lot of soft coverage. This invites the run and prevents big plays from happening. It's good for the Under. 

Lions coach Dan Campbell isn't afraid to feature a lot of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. The Rams held seven of their last nine opponents to 22 or fewer points. Just once did the Rams allow an opposing runner to gain 100 rushing yards.

Goff's top red zone target is tight end Sam LaPorta, who set a rookie record with 86 catches and ranked No. 1 in red zone touchdowns for tight ends. LaPorta suffered a knee injury in the Lions' Week 18 victory against the Vikings. He'll be limited if he plays. Also hurt in that game was Kalif Raymond, a dangerous return man for the Lions. 

The Rams use Kyren Williams to set up their passing attack. Detroit's defense strength is its run defense. The Lions finished third in yards per carry allowed and No. 2 in run defense limiting opposing runners to 88.8 yards per game.