There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors.

Since an embarrassing road loss to the Pistons, the Raptors have played better. Their offense is improved with the additions of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. They were acquired in a trade with the Knicks and have now played eight games with Toronto.

Following the loss to Detroit, the Raptors beat the Cavaliers, who are on a five-game win streak, and then went 2-4 on a road trip with three of those defeats occurring in close fashion, including a controversial one-point loss to the Lakers. Toronto then hosted the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA at 31-9, and played a strong defensive game in a 105-96 loss this past Monday.  

That makes this an important home game for the Raptors. It's also a revenge spot. The Heat downed the Raptors, 112-103, at Toronto on Dec. 6. Caleb Martin had a season-best 24 points and a career-best 12 rebounds in that game. I don't see Martin duplicating those numbers. 

Miami is in a fat-and-happy mood following a 96-95 overtime road win against the Nets two days ago. That was the Heat's third win in a row. Miami has Jimmy Butler back, but is down rotation players Jaime Jaquez and Kevin Love. 

The Raptors holding the Celtics 16 points below their season average is a strong positive and gives me confidence to back them here.