The look-ahead line on this matchup was Notre Dame minus 16. But now after the Irish lost straight-up as four-touchdown favorites against Northern Illinois last week the line is down to a touchdown, Riley Leonard suddenly is a lousy quarterback and Marcus Freeman is the worst Notre Dame coach since Gerry Faust.

Time-out please. The Irish's loss to Northern Illinois was one of the biggest upsets of the decade. But the overreaction is way too over the top.

Look, I'm not sold on Freeman. Notre Dame, though, is 6-1 following a loss under Freeman. Leonard isn't a great downfield passer. He is a heady, experienced QB with outstanding intangibles and running ability. Nobody questioned Leonard's talents when he was at Duke last year.

Just who is Purdue? The Boilermakers are worse under second-year coach Ryan Walters than they were during the five-year Jeff Brohm era. Purdue was 4-8 SU and ATS last season. Brohm would have been appalled by the Boilermakers' lack of scoring as they were held to fewer than 21 points in seven of their games.

I certainly would take Leonard ahead of Purdue quarterback Houston Card. The Irish hold talent edges all across the field against Purdue. The Boilermakers are projected to be one of the lower-ranking Big Ten teams again this season.

And, now, the Irish certainly aren't going to lack motivation. This is a statement game for Freeman and his future. If the Irish were to lose here, their playoff hopes would already be extinguished.

The point spread has dropped low enough to back the Irish.

I am 29-13-1 on my last 43 premium/free plays. I have five premium college football plays going Saturday in addition to this free selection. I also am looking to go 9-1-1 on my last 11 Canadian Football League plays with a Saturday CFL play.