This comes down to not trusting Aaron Nola on the road, nor having faith in the Phillies bullpen, which ranks 23rd in ERA since July 1.

Nola has a 3.79 road ERA compared to 3.29 at home this season. This is similar to his career mark of a 4.21 away ERA compared to 3.21 ERA at home. Nola can't expect to get bailed out by a Phillies bullpen that has surrendered 12 earned runs in six innings during this series.

The Mets are averaging 5.4 runs in their five playoff games.

New York is pitching Sean Manaea. The Mets are 15-4 in Manaea's last 19 starts.