No reason to overthink this one. The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They are healthy again and are 14 games better than the Pirates. The pitching matchup of Aaron Nola vs lefty Martin Perez is heavily in Philadelphia's favor, too.

So I'm fine laying this price.

Nola is having another consistent, strong season. He's 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs during 10 of his last 11 starts.

Now look at journeyman Perez. He's 1-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.62 ratio. That ERA goes up even higher to 6.75 going by his past three starts. The Phillies rank in the top 8 in major hitting categories against lefties, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Strong teams have a history of coming out of the All-Star break in winning fashion. Favorites went 11-4 (73 percent) in the first game following break last season.