Even with the offensively-challenged Padres taking on Clayton Kershaw, the best pitcher in baseball, everything has to break right for an under to cash with a total this low.

The Padres are averaging 3.8 runs in their last eight games. It's asking a lot for Kershaw to keep shutting out teams. The Dodgers also have vulnerable setup men.

I can't see rookie Odrisamer Despaigne continuing to maintain an ERA under 1.00. His minor league pedigree certainly doesn't support his current statistics. Despaigne has been extremely lucky with batted balls going right to his fielders. He's walked eight batters during his last two starts with just four strikeouts. This is his fourth start so the Dodgers have ample film and reports on his orthodox style.

All of Despaigne's starts have been at two super pitcher's parks - Petco Park and AT&T Park in San Francisco. He's faced two struggling offenses - the Giants and Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are a big step up in offense.

The Dodgers averaged 7.2 runs in their last four games prior to scoring only one run yesterday against Max Scherzer at Comerica Park. The Dodgers rank seventh in the majors in batting average and are 11th in runs scored.

(Editor's note: Long-time Vegas pro Stephen Nover has two additional plays going today both guaranteed, including his Run Line Game of the Week.)