Normally I wouldn't recommend laying this high of a price, but I want Johnny Cueto at home in a day game with the Reds blazing mad after losing the first two games of this series to the Marlins by one run apiece.

Cueto is 8-3 with a 1.77 ERA at home this season. He is 6-2 in day games with a 1.59 ERA. The righty is in top form, too, giving up just three runs during his last three starts - all wins - spanning 23 innings. Cueto ranks third in baseball with a 2.04 ERA and rates No. 1 in holding opponents to a .183 batting average.

The Marlins are 16-10 versus lefties, but are just 41-49 against righties.

Miami is starting lefty Brad Hand, who has a 4.03 ERA on the season and a 3.60 day ERA. Hand has pitched surprising well since joining the Marlins' starting rotation, but he is clearly trumped by Cueto here.

I also like the Reds' eighth and ninth inning pitchers - Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman - better than the Marlins' back-end bullpen.