Because I trust Jon Lester more in big games than James Shields. Lester has a strong track record. Shields doesn't. Shields also has pitched better on the road than at home.


Kansas City's home field edge is negated by its lack of playoff experience.


Neither team has a particularly strong offense. So starting pitching is even more huge. Lester has a 2.11 career ERA in 13 postseason appearances, including 11 starts. He surrendered only one earned run in two World Series starts last season spanning 15 1/3 innings.


Lester is amazingly consistent. He posted a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts for Oakland. He also won both of his starts for the A's against the Royals during the regular season. Oakland won those two games by a combined margin of 19-6.


Shields made six postseason starts when he was with Tampa Bay going 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA. Shields is 4-6 at home with a 3.51 ERA compared to 10-2 on the road with a 2.97 ERA. The Royals are 3-7 in Shields' last 10 home starts.


Lester went 11-5 with a 2.58 ERA in night games. Shields has a 3.50 ERA at night compared to a 2.73 day ERA.