The AFC Championship play is on the Denver Broncos.Game 312 at 3:05 eastern. The Broncos are an upset alert on the simulation model which has cashed 90% to the spread the last 5 years. Denver knows they are getting no respect here as a 1 seed taking points at home over a team they already beat this season. The Broncos have covered 6 of 7 vs the Patriots if they won their last game. The Patriots have lost 6 of 7 to the Broncos if they won and covered last out. Super Bowl Champs that are away from home and scored 25 or more points are 0-5 straight up and ats. Patriots have revenge but have lost and failed to cover the last 3 times in that role in post season play. The Broncos are 5-1 at home as a dog if they won at least their last two. They fit a championship round system that plays on teams wit the better statistical defense and allowed fewer points. The Patriots have lost 7 of their last 10 road post season games. New England was beat bad in the first game as Denver ran all over them. They will likely try and take the run game away and for Peyton Manning to throw to beat them. Denver may come out and use the pass to set up the run in this game. Denver was average at best last week in Mannings first full game back and appeared to be hurt with the bye week more than helped. They should drop less ball here and be much more efficient this week. The Patriots took full advantage of the bye wee and were ready and took down a Tired looking Kansas City team that had won 11 straight. Things get more difficult in this one. Take the points with Denver.