The Super bowl 51 selection is on New England at 6:35 eastern on FOX. The Patriots have been the best team all year. Even in the NFLX when other teams were removing starters the Patriots were dominating with their backups. This team went 3-0 with their 2nd string Qb Garapollo until he was hurt before losing in game 4. The winning team in Super bowl history is 42-6-2 to the spread. The Patriots have a top 10 defense and the Falcons do not. This key since the team with the higher rated defense has won 42 of the 50 super bowls. In fact the #1 Defense when playing in the big game has won 10 of 12 all time.. The Falcons have an edge on offense ranked #2 overall. The edge is not that significant when we consider the Patriots are ranked #3 overall. The key in this game will be red zone defense. which team will bog down and hold the other to a field goal. The team who has the better defense can usually limit the damage in these instances and the Patriots defense is a bend but dont break stop unit. The Falcons will try and get pressure on Brady like most teams do. However. Brady releases the ball quickly and wont need 8 seconds in the pocket to find an open receiver. The New England offense is very diverse and without turning them over, is very tough to stop. The Patriots never key on one guy and run guys in and out all game long. They spread the ball around and even when you make adjustments always appear to be one step ahead in finding the right guy. They have a solid run game and can control the clock and Keep Matt Ryan and the vaunted Falcons off the field if they choose. Looking deeper in the our statistical approach we see that when the #1 scoring offense takes on the #1 scoring defense. The defense has come out on top 5 of the 6 times in SB history and the last 5 #1 scoring offenses were held to 17 or less points.



When favored in a super bowl an important thing to consider is. Can our favorite score 28 or more points. In The history of this game. these favorites are 18-2-1 to the spread. The Patriots have put up 28 or more in 10 of their 16 games. They have scored 28 or more EVERY time this season vs a defense that was ranked worse then 12th excluding the Buffalo game where they had a 3rd string Qb at the helm. So we know the Patriots can put up the points. Looking at the Falcons we see they have scored 30 or more points in 6 straight games. No team since the turn of the century has won a Super bowl in this situation and only 11 teams have even done this. Atlanta put up over 40 points in their NFC Championship win. teams who score 40+ points in a playoff game have failed to cover 24 of the last 28 times. In fact teams who average more points are 2-12 to the spread of late in the super bowl. Matt Ryan will most likely be the MVP which has not been a good thing. SB QB/S who are MVP are 4-12 straight up since 1980 and are 0-7 to the spread over the last 19 seasons.







Coach Belichick has covered 11 of 12 vs teams who are averaging more than 29 points per game if that team passed for 260 or more yards and teams with a coach like the Falcons facing Belichick for the first time are a lousy 3-22. Tom Brady has never lost in Texas going 7-0 straight up and to the spread.




The Falcons are the 12th team since 1978 to score 500 or more points in the regular season. These teams are 1-6 to the spread since 1999 in the Super bowl. Pass defense has been a big indicator in this game. In fact only ONE team has EVER won the Super bowl with a pass defense that was worse than league average. The Falcons are at the bottom of the league ranked 28th. The Patriots have quietly held their last 5 opponents to 17 or less points. The Pats are 16-0 to the spread on turf vs a non-divisional opponent when they are averaging less than 3.80 yards per rush.




BONUS TOTAL-UNDER-

BONUS PROPS. Under 47.5 for longest field goal made

Yes- for a score in the final 2 minutes of the first half

MVP- Tom Brady

Over 3 receptions Malcolm Mitchell

Under 321 yards passing Matt Ryan




In closing and based on the aforementioned statistical data and Historical super bowl systems and angles we will back the Patriots to win super Bowl 51. Lay the 3 points in this one. Best of luck and enjoy the game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports