This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Memphis Grizzlies.

Outright win?! I'm not calling for that. But in a contest that I see being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, I'm grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.

First off, with nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side here, my contrarian nature definitely makes me love this play even more.

Memphis is 20-41 overall, including 13-17 on the road, while Brooklyn is only 24-36 overall, including just 15-17 at home.

Memphis is off five straight SU losses after back-to-back home losses to Portland, including a disappointing 107-100 OT loss most recently.

The Grizz though are 4-1 ATS in their last five after five or more SU losses in a row.

Brooklyn is coming off back-to-back home wins over Atlanta, but with Philadelphia coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here.

The Grizz play with the added incentive of revenge as well after a 111-86 home loss to the Nets in late February.

Clearly, Memphis is just going through the motions this season, getting ready for next year. But there are going to be moments and "spots" throughout the season where the Grizzlies will win and that putting money on them to cover the spread makes sense.

And this really large one against this really mediocre Nets team that's poised for a letdown is the right place to FIRE.

As stated off the top, no outright, but closer than expected.

The play is MEMPHIS.

Good luck, NP