This is a 10* NORTHWEST TOM on the OVER Nuggets/Wolves.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late (like most of the NBA right now!), but I'm finally expecting more of a wide-open shootout here.

Denver is 40-17 overall, but just 20-15 on the road. It's off a 107-105 loss at Dallas, snapping a five-game win streak. The Nuggets have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but that's significant for us to take note, as Denver has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Denver plays with the added incentive of revenge here after a humbling 110-89 loss to Minnesota back in early November, and note that the Nuggets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 90 or fewer points in.

Minnesota is also 47-21, including 23-8 at home. The Wolves have won three straight after last night's 114-104 win at Utah. They return home here after a six-game road trp and are playing the second game of the back-to-back, but will look to keep the pressure on the defending champs by pushing the pace in my opinion.

This number is a little low now, so the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP