This is a 10* SEC TOM on the UNDER Mississippi State/Texas.

These teams have been involved in some higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally anticipating much more of a defensive battle this weekend.

Mississippi State is 1-3 after last week's 45-28 home loss to Florida. the Bulldogs have lost three straight SU/ATS, which is significant to note, as Mississippi State has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after three or more SU/ATS setbacks in a row.

Texas is 4-0 SU/ATS and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight after last week's 51-3 win over ULM. Note though that dating back to last season the Longhorns have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The Bulldogs are giving up 31 PPG, but I just don't see the Longhorns running up the score in this one, especially with a neutral-site game vs. the Sooners after this.

Texas needs to win this game, but it just as importantly needs to do so without sustaining any major injuries.

The Bulldogs have no hope here, and I don't expect their offense to do much.

A great overall "situational" play, as everything adds up to this one being a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP