This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV TOY on the OVER Steelers/Colts.

With nearly 70% of the early public money on the OVER, this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU, and it has seen all three games go UNDER the number so far. Note though, dating to late yar the Steelers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. A new team and look, but still a noteworthy stat.

The Colts are 1-2 after their 21-16 win here at home over Chicago last weekend. Two of three have dipped below the number this year for Indianapolis.

But as I say, I'm anticipating these teams to easily clear this really low total. Obviously the Steelers offense has been great to this point, but I say that Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor will be able to consistently move the chains today. Taylor has completed a league-worst 49 percent of his passes, but he does lead the NFL in air yards per completion and explosive passes of 40-plus yards.

I think these defenses can set up these offenses in some prime short-yardage situations as well.

It would be easy to look at these team's early numbers and automatically assume that we'll have the lowest-scoring game of the season here. And that is in fact what the majority of the public thinks, and what the oddsmakers are all trying to lead us to believe.

But I say these offenses finally start producing here in Week 4, as these up-and-coming quarterbacks duel it out on Sunday afternoon.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP