This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER UCF/Florida.

UCF is 3-1 and Florida is 2-2.

The Golden Knights have seen the total go OVER in all four of their games, while the Gators have seen the total go OVER in three of four.

Bettors are quick to back another high-scoring affair here with the majority of the early money on the "over," so this one definitely appeals to my contrarian nature.

UCF though is off its first loss of the year, a humbling 48-21 setback to Colorado at home as an 11.5-point favorite. And that fact is significant for us to take note of here, as the Golden Knights have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite dating to last season.

The Gators are off the 45-28 win over Mississippi State, but I expect their QB Graham Hertz to have a more difficult time moving the ball today vs. this determined Knights side.

I expect a few turnovers and for field position to play a big part in the outcome of this contest and because of that, I'm expecting the total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP