This is a 10* NFC SOUTH GOM on the Falcons on the moneyline.

Atlanta is 2-2 after last week's crucial 26-24 home win over the Saints. I think the Falcons keep the momentum rolling at home now vs. the Bucs, who rebounded from a bad 26-7 home loss to Denver to hammer Philly 33-16.

With another tough game at division rival New Orleans next week, the Bucs are definitely dealing with a difficult part of their schedule and I think situationally, the short week here absolutely favors the Falcons.

The teams split two close meetings last year. Atlanta has indeed struggled to cover the spread at home lately, going just 2-8 ATS.

And so that's another reason why I'm going to suggest bypassing the spread here and take the home side on the moneyline option.

Philadelphia has major issues, so I'm not reading too much into the Bucs performance last week. I say that Kirk Cousins settles down here in Week 4 and delivers his best performance yet.

I like the FALCONS on Thursday night.

Good luck, NP